Is the accuracy of individuals' survival beliefs associated with their knowledge of population life expectancy?

Background: On average, individuals underestimate their survival chances, which could yield suboptimal long-term decisions. Objective: Is the accuracy of individuals’ beliefs associated with knowledge population life expectancy people age and gender? Methods: We use 1995 1996 waves Dutch DNB Household Survey (DHS) data on expectancy, supplemented death registry for years to 2018. The is measured by comparing these (actual) during after survey was conducted. provide prima facie evidence association between beliefs, quantify this using mortality risk models that control socioeconomic status health-related characteristics. Results: Individuals only some over- or underestimation had, about a one-third smaller difference rate than those who severely underestimated expectancy. In line evidence, we find that, controlling health characteristics, 55-year-old one-year better lifetime with, 0.3 less (95% CI: 0.09–0.52). Contribution: empirical in support hypothesis have more accurate beliefs.